Declarative, present tense, falsifiable. You write what would prove it wrong before you start looking.
Each settled bet is a stone. The stamp is refused without evidence.
If these bets validate by this date, the decision fires. Nobody relitigates the call.
What fell is remembered.
Every belief gets a claim and a kill condition.
A bet is declarative, present tense, and falsifiable. You write what would prove it — and what would prove it wrong — before you start looking.
Write the decision before the evidence arrives.
A tripwire is an if→then you commit to in advance: if these bets validate by this date, then the decision fires — so nobody relitigates the call in the meeting where the evidence lands.
Watch confidence compound toward the goal.
Bets sit on a time axis. Tripwires become gates. You can see, today, what has to be true by when — and what the case looks like if it is.
Killing a bet is the point.
Dead bets get a permanent shelf, with what they cost and who called it. An empty graveyard is the warning sign.
EVIDENCE ×6 · KILLED BY: AS
EVIDENCE ×8 · KILLED BY: JT
Your week is a stormcloud of talk.
Calls, threads, and notes — full of signal, attributed to no one, attached to nothing. Fulmen strikes it into hypotheses you can hold someone to.
The evidence already exists. It's buried in your meetings.
Connect the places your work already lives — meeting notes, your CRM, the docs. One click sweeps every synced source and drafts evidence against the bets it touches, quoted and linked back to the call it came from. Finding out where you stand stops being an afternoon of archaeology.
What would prove you wrong?
Put it in writing. Then go find out.