FULMEN
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A STRATEGY TOOL FOR FOUNDING TEAMS

Strategy is a set of bets.
Most teams never settle them.

Fulmen holds your hypotheses as falsifiable bets, gates every status change behind evidence, and fires the decisions you committed to in advance.

EARLY ACCESS. SINGLE WORKSPACE. NO INTEGRATIONS YET.
A BET IN FLIGHT
Warm intros convert to paid pilots at ≥40%
⧗ TESTING
CHANNELS · MK · 12d · EV×3
⚡ ARMEDHire first marketer
HOVER TO REPLAY
STRATEGY DOCS ROT
Written once in January, contradicted by March, opened again in October.
NOBODY REMEMBERS WHAT WE BELIEVED
The assumption that justified the roadmap is gone from the record.
DECISIONS GET MADE ON VIBES
Whoever is most confident on Thursday wins the quarter.
01 · BETS

Every belief gets a claim and a kill condition.

A bet is declarative, present tense, and falsifiable. You write what would prove it — and what would prove it wrong — before you start looking.

You cannot change a bet's status without writing down why. The stamp is refused without evidence.
⧗ TESTING
Support leads sign up without a demo call.
VALIDATES IF
≥3 self-serve checkouts before the Jul 29 readout.
INVALIDATES IF
Every close needs a founder call.
REVENUE · MK · 18 DAYS OLD · EVIDENCE ×4 · READOUT IN 6 DAYS
JUL 20 11:04 · METRIC · SYS
2 self-serve checkouts recorded. Need 3 by Jul 29.
02 · TRIPWIRES

Write the decision before the evidence arrives.

Arm a tripwire and the decision is settled in advance. When the condition bets validate, it fires — so nobody relitigates the call in the meeting where the evidence lands.

Warm intros convert at ≥40%
✓ VALIDATED
Two lookalike customers validate the ICP
✓ VALIDATED
⚡ ARMEDHire the first marketer2 / 2 MUST VALIDATE
03 · THE PATH

Watch confidence compound toward the goal.

Bets sit on a time axis. Tripwires become gates. You can see, today, what has to be true by when — and what the case looks like if it is.

JULAUGSEP
TODAY
⚡ GATE · AUG 11 — HIRE FIRST MARKETER
REVENUE
⧗sign up without a demo call
CHANNELS
⧗Warm intros convert ≥40%⚡
BUYERS
⧗Two lookalike customers validate the ICP⚡
REVENUE
○Teams expand past 20 seats unpromptedPLANNED
42%
CONFIDENCE TODAY
64%
IF THE GATE FIRES
85%
GOAL: RAISE-READY BY OCT 01
04 · THE GRAVEYARD

Killing a bet is the point.

Dead bets get a permanent shelf, with what they cost and who called it. An empty graveyard is the warning sign.

0 BETS KILLED THIS MONTH — ARE YOU TESTING ANYTHING?
Founders will migrate off Notion for this alone
LIVED 34 DAYS · KILLED JUL 03
EVIDENCE ×6 · KILLED BY: AS
IT admins are the economic buyer
LIVED 45 DAYS · KILLED JUN 02
EVIDENCE ×8 · KILLED BY: JT
Sources propose. People apply. Nothing writes to the graph without a human on it.
NOTIONATTIOCSV

What would prove you wrong?

Put it in writing. Then go find out.

EARLY ACCESS. SINGLE WORKSPACE. NO INTEGRATIONS YET.
FULMEN
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